China’s crude oil imports from Iran up: Report

Source: Islamic Republic News Agency

 China's crude oil imports from Iran have amounted to 28 million tons in 2011, which marks a 30-percent growth compared to the same period last year.

The figure shows China traded in nearly 557,000 barrels of oil from Iran on a daily basis last year, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Customs data showed that China's full-year crude imports totaled 253.78 million tons, up by 6.1 percent in 2011.

China's overall crude imports for December 2011 stood at 21.92 million tons, up 5.1 percent in comparison with the same period in the previous year.

Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said on January 19 that his country would continue oil trade with Iran in defiance of proposed US and European sanctions which aim to stop Iran's oil exports.

'China's oil trade with Iran is a normal commercial activity,' he added.

China's prime minister said, 'I believe that China is not the only country to buy oil from Iran... Legitimate trade has to be protected if global economic chaos is to be avoided.'

China's rapid growth in recent years has seen a surge in demand for oil in the country.

View the original article here

With EU On Board With Iran Oil Sanctions, Western Eyes Turn To Asia

AppId is over the quota

By Charles Recknagel, RFE/RL

The decision by European Union foreign ministers to stop taking deliveries of crude oil from Iran might well represent a momentous change and a blow to Tehran.

But by most accounts such a move -- even in conjunction with a host of other punitive steps -- is insufficient to force Tehran to stop what the West says are efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

The 510,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil that the EU imports from Iran represent less than one-fifth of the more than 2.6 million bpd Iran ships out daily.

Still, what the West hopes is that the EU's example will create pressure for Asia's energy-hungry economic giants to follow suit.

China, Japan, India, and South Korea account for a combined 53 percent of Iran's total exports. If they join the sanctions, there is little chance Iran's regime -- which depends on energy exports for nearly half its budget revenues -- could survive.

That makes the EU's latest action a milestone on a still-long journey to muster economic pressure against Tehran, with no end in sight because nobody knows whether the Asian giants will join the campaign or not.

Customer Loyalty

"Both China and Russia, China in particular, have very strong and strengthening commercial ties [with Iran]," David Knott of the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) says, noting that China is Iran's biggest oil customer at 543,000 bpd. "And while the Western...world has been withdrawing from Iran because of the tightening U.S. and international sanctions, China has not been so much bound by those."

China gets 10 percent of its imported oil from Tehran. It also has important business interests in Iran, including projects to develop oil and gas fields and drilling work.

Beijing has repeatedly said sanctions will not resolve the nuclear issue and signaled that finding a substitute supplier is not on its agenda.

The other three biggest Asian importers of Iranian oil -- India, Japan, and South Korea -- are also reluctant but may be easier for the West to woo. Unlike China, which is America's biggest creditor, they are all to varying degrees U.S. allies.

India shows no signs of cutting back on Iranian oil. The country gets 11 percent of its crude oil from Iran, or 341,000 bpd, making Tehran its second-largest supplier.

Japan, a close U.S. ally gets 6 percent of its oil from Iran, or 251,000 bpd. It has signaled reluctance to halt those imports, though it might cut them back. When Japan's finance minister earlier this month said Japan would join sanctions, other officials raced to backtrack, indicating nothing is decided.

South Korea, which gets 7.5 percent of its crude from Iran, or 239,000 bpd, says it would be difficult for it to find alternative supplies quickly. Seoul is in bilateral discussions with Washington to find a compromise as it tries to maintain its energy security without alienating the U.S., its key trade partner.

Cat And Mouse

All this suggests Western powers have much work ahead to re-route Iran's customers to other suppliers. The most obvious alternative is Saudi Arabia, which this week affirmed it has the capacity to fill any drop in the world's oil supply that may result from sanctions on Iran.

But Iran can equally be expected to do everything it can to hold onto its customers, including making it easier for them to stay ahead of the sanctions effort.

Knott says that while the most effective sanction on Tehran is Washington's ban on countries doing business with the Central Bank of Iran, even that is not foolproof.

"One of the things that might happen is that the American targeting of the Central Bank of Iran," Knott says. "The rules are going to get tighter around June when the next swath of sanctions come in, what might happen then, people are thinking, is that the Iranians might be more open to barter deals for oil."

Could some Asian countries play a cat-and-mouse game with Washington, observing U.S. bans to the letter but going around them in practice?

Tehran clearly hopes so. And that means Western capitals will continue to seek real commitments from their Asian partners to reduce Iranian oil imports.

Copyright (c) 2012 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036. www.rferl.org

View the original article here

EU Ministers Adopt Iran Oil Embargo

AppId is over the quota

Source: RFE/RL

European Union foreign ministers have agreed to ban the import of Iranian oil as part of sanctions designed to pressure Iran to end its alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons.

The measures approved in Brussels include an immediate ban on the signing of new supply contracts for Iranian crude oil and petroleum products, while existing contracts would be phased out by July 1.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague called the measures part of "an unprecedented set of sanctions."

The EU currently buys around one-fifth of Iran's oil exports -- Iran's most valuable asset.

EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton has said sanctions were designed to persuade Iran to return to talks on its nuclear program that Western powers fear is aimed at producing atomic weapons.

"We will be discussing and finalizing additional sanctions [on Iran], particularly focused on the central bank and on oil exports," Ashton said. "But I do want to, again, reiterate that this is part of trying to get a twin-track approach. The pressure of sanctions in designed to try and make sure that Iran takes seriously our request to come to the table and meet."

Ashton said world powers had yet to receive a reply from Tehran to an offer in October to hold new talks.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said it was critical that action again Iran be taken, saying it was not a question of security in the region alone, but "a question of security in the world."

Iran says its nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes, but Western powers and many international officials fear it is aimed at producing atomic weapons.

Four rounds of UN sanctions have targeted Iran's nuclear activities, and the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently accused Tehran of work "specific to nuclear weapons."

The EU and the United States are working to persuade countries in Asia to reduce their oil purchases from Iran as well.

Iran has threatened to retaliate over new sanctions by blocking the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, through which some 20 percent of the world's oil exports pass. The United States has vowed to keep the trade route open.

Photos: Iranian Navy's parade in the Strait of Hormuz

The United States says one of its aircraft carriers as well as a British and a French warship have recently sailed through the Strait of Hormuz and into the Gulf without incident.

A spokeswoman for the U.S. Fifth Fleet said the "USS Abraham Lincoln" had completed what she called a "regular and routine" passage through the strait.

EU foreign ministers also planned at the January 23 meeting to widen sanctions against Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime in Belarus. The bloc has so far frozen personal assets and imposed visa bans on more than 200 individuals linked to the regime after the violent crackdown on demonstrators that ensued after the flawed presidential election in 2010.

compiled from agency reports

Copyright (c) 2012 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036. www.rferl.org

Related News:

... Payvand News - 01/23/12 ... --

View the original article here

E.U. Formally Adopts Iran Oil Embargo

 Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaks during the 1st International Islamic Awakening Conference in Tehran September 18, 2011.

(BRUSSELS) —The European Union formally adopted an oil embargo Monday against Iran and a freeze of the assets of the country's central bank, part of sanctions meant to pressure the country to resume talks on its nuclear program.

Diplomats said the measures, which were adopted in Brussels by the EU's 27 foreign ministers, include an immediate embargo on new contracts for crude oil and petroleum products, while existing contracts will be allowed to run until July.

EU diplomats are calling the measure part of a twin track approach toward Iran: increase sanctions to discourage what they suspect is Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons but emphasize at the same time the international community's willingness to talk. Iran says its nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague called the embargo part of "an unprecedented set of sanctions." (See the top 10 players in Iran's power struggle.)

"I think this shows the resolve of the European Union on this issue," Hague said.

The EU also agreed to freeze the assets of the Iranian central bank. Together, the two measures are intended not only to pressure Iran to agree to talks but also to choke of funding for its nuclear activities.

In October, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton sent a letter to Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, saying her goal was a negotiated solution that "restores international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program."

She says she has not yet received a reply.

In advance of Monday's decision, negotiators worked hard to try to ensure that the embargo would punish only Iran — and not EU member Greece, which is in dire financial trouble and relies heavily on low-priced Iranian oil.

The foreign ministers agreed to a review of the effects of the sanctions, to be completed by May 1, a diplomat said. He spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the subject before the official announcement. They agreed in principle to make up the costs Greece incurs as a result of the embargo.

"It is important to know what will happen to individual countries as a consequence of the sanctions," Ashton said before the meeting.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran, an exile group opposed to the country's clerical regime, welcomed the new sanctions and called for their implementation without delay.

"For over two decades, the Iranian Resistance has called for comprehensive oil and financial sanctions against the religious and terrorist dictatorship ruling Iran," Maryam Rajavi, the organization's president-elect, said in a statement.

The council, founded in 1981, is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, but not by the European Union.

"While the clerical regime is all out to obtain nuclear weapons, a five-month delay in putting these sanctions in full force provides a significant amount of time for this regime to implement its ominous plots," Rajavi said.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said it was critical that action be taken.

"This is not a question of security in the region," he said. "It is a question of security in the world."

Raf Casert contributed to this report.

See pictures of people around the world protesting Iran's election.

See pictures of terror in Tehran.

View the original article here

Oil Tumbles as Iran Premium Fades

Oil has fallen below $99 a barrel on reports that "major powers" are expected to issue a statement Friday on the possibility of resuming nuclear talks with Iran.

View of Iran's oil industry installations in Mahshahr, Khuzestan province, southern Iran.

As of mid-morning trading, prices on the February WTI contract—which expires Friday at the end of the floor session—and nearby March contract had reached session lows of $98.05 and $98.18 a barrel, respectively.

Since November of last year, U.S. oil prices have hovered around $100 a barrel on heightened geopolitical risks in Iran. Controversy over Iran’s nuclear program, followed by Iranian military drills in the Strait of Hormuz—a key waterway that carries 30 percent of the world’s seaborne oil—helped send prices above $100 a barrel. That's until now.

"We are ready to take off some of our Iranian premium," Petromatrix energy analyst Olivier Jakob wrote in a note to clients on Thursday and he reiterated that call Friday, saying Iran has "started to have a softer voice about potential action in the Strait of Hormuz, a voice that was later welcomed by the United Arab Emirates. Iran also claims that it is ready to take part again in nuclear negotiations."

Also European Union officials are expected to announce an agreement on the embargo of Iran oil on Monday, analysts and traders say these may prove to be toothless sanctions.

"The EU embargo on Iran to be decided on Monday is basically useless until the first review in three months from now. If new negotiations are to take place between Iran and the West then the EU will want to officially announce an embargo, then claim that the negotiations are a result of the announced embargo and in three months the EU will have the option to cancel or not the embargo directive," Jakob wrote.

India and Iran have also reportedly agreed to settle some oil sales in rupees, so that would be another way to circumvent EU and U.S. sanctions. "This is one of the first times oil has been settled in a currency other than dollars. It's a major coup for the Iranians," says Again Capital founder John Kilduff, adding its also another reason for an unwinding of the Iranian risk premium in oil prices.

Also pressuring prices, the U.S. Energy Department on Thursday announced that U.S. oil demand is at a 15-year low and gasoline demand is at an 11-year low, highlighting the fragility of an economic recovery in the world’s largest oil consumer.

March WTI futures are the most active contract (Feb expires today), and is now trading below 50-day moving average ($99.10).

Analysts say the next key technical level is in the $97.80-$97.90 a barrel range.

Disclaimer

View the original article here

Police: Assailants kidnap US citizen leaving bank in Nigeria oil delta, ask for $333k ransom

LAGOS, Nigeria - Assailants kidnapped a U.S. citizen leaving a bank in Nigeria's oil-rich southern delta Friday, the first such attack targeting foreigners in the restive region for several months.

The attack happened in Warri, the capital of Delta state, local police spokesman Charles Muka said. Investigators believe the assailants trailed the man to the bank and waited outside before kidnapping him, Muka said.

Kidnappers later made contact with authorities and demanded a $333,000 ransom, he said.

The attack occurred in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta, where foreign firms have pumped oil out of the country for more than 50 years. Despite the billions flowing into Nigeria's government, many in the delta remain desperately poor, living in polluted waters without access to proper medical care, education or work.

In 2006, militants started a wave of attacks targeting foreign oil companies, including bombing their pipelines, kidnapping their workers and fighting with security forces. That violence waned in 2009 with a government-sponsored amnesty program promising ex-fighters monthly payments and job training. However, few in the delta have seen the promised benefits.

While foreign workers have become harder to target, local kidnapping gangs have begun seizing middle-class Nigerians as well.

Deb MacLean, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Embassy in Nigeria's capital Abuja, said diplomats there were aware of the kidnapping.

"We continue to monitor the situation closely and assist," MacLean said Friday night.

In 2011, there were five reported kidnappings of U.S. citizens in Nigeria, according to a recent U.S. State Department travel warning about the country. The most recent occurred in November when two U.S. citizens and a Mexican were kidnapped from a Chevron Corp. offshore oil field and held for about two weeks, the State Department said.

___

Associated Press writer Jon Gambrell contributed to this report.

View the original article here

European Bank Debt Grows Even Less Appealing to Investors

European Pressphoto Agency

Troubling signs for the euro zone: Investors are getting more?averse to the region’s bank debt, except that of German lenders.

Following?France’s recent loss of its AAA credit rating by Standard & Poor’s, 80% of investors polled by TD?Securities indicated they were still not buying French bank paper, and those?that did were only involved in overnight paper.

That was a spike from 47% in a?previous survey in December. Investors continue not to purchase bank paper in Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece.

Instead, 74% said they?were willing to buy German bank paper, up from 57% last time; 46% were willing to?invest for terms of 1 to 3 months, compared with 42% last time.

View the original article here

Research and Markets: Leading North American Convenience Stores, Neighborhood Stores and Gas Stations – Company Benchmarking Analysis Report 2012

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6e4c6d/leading_north_amer) has announced the addition of Canadean Ltd's new report "Leading North American Convenience Stores, Neighborhood Stores and Gas Stations - Company Benchmarking Analysis Report" to their offering.

“Leading North American Convenience Stores, Neighborhood Stores and Gas Stations - Company Benchmarking Analysis Report”

This report contains a competitive company benchmarking analysis based on key financial and operating parameters and ratios of a select peer group of companies, compared to one another and to overall global averages for their retail channel. The analysis highlights the companies that are performing the best among the peer group, and in which areas, and therefore clarifies leading performance standards and the strengths and weaknesses of companies covered.

Canadean's North American Convenience Stores, Neighborhood Stores and Gas Stations - Company Benchmarking Analysis Report' compares the strength of the leading convenience stores, neighborhood stores and gas stations in North America relative to each other and international averages for retailers in the convenience stores, neighborhood stores and gas stations channel.

Key Highlights:

Couche-Tard was the strongest performer of the leading convenience stores, neighborhood stores and gas stations in North America. The company's strong performance was driven by the high scores it received for scale and growth pillar. However, the company's performance was poor under other pillars. Casey's General Stores and Susser were the strongest performers under the operational efficiency pillar. However, their performance was weaker than the convenience stores, neighborhood stores and gas stations channel under scale and growth pillar. The Pantry was the weakest performer of the leading convenience stores, neighborhood stores and gas stations in North America. The company's poor performance was driven by the weak scores it received for metrics across all the pillars. The North American convenience stores, neighborhood stores and gas stations market is moderately concentrated and has several independent stores or small store chains in addition to large national store chains. In 2010, the top ten convenience stores, neighborhood stores and gas stations had a market share of 51.0%.

Companies Mentioned:

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. The Pantry, Inc. TravelCenters of America LLC Casey's General Stores, Inc. Susser Holdings Corporation

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6e4c6d/leading_north_amer

View the original article here

Other UK business news: Oldbury presswork firm BC Barton had debts of £1.7m

An historic Black Country presswork firm that collapsed after more than 110 years of trading had debts of about £1.7 million, it has emerged.

Oldbury-based BC Barton & Son, established in 1898 by Benjamin Charles Barton and his son Percival, called in administrators from Baker Tilly Restructuring and Recovery in November after a series of projects failed to come to fruition.

Guy Mander, Baker Tilly partner and joint administrator of the company, said he was hopeful a sale could be agreed.

However, the number of employees has reduced from 45 to 29 during the administration process.

Mr Mander said: “The administrators are continuing to trade the business with a view to securing a buyer.

“We have had plenty of interest and are optimistic that we will be able to conclude a sale in the coming days, which would preserve the jobs of the remaining 29 employees.

“Regrettably, during the trading period a further seven members of staff have been made redundant and we have assisted those employees in dealing with their claims.”

A statement of affairs published by administrators shows a deficiency as regards members of £1.1 million, after assets of £303,000 available to unsecured creditors are taken into account.

The documents show the firm’s principal creditors are Lloyds TSB Commercial Finance, which it owes £309,000, and Mark Barnett and Susan Barton, who have a legal charge over the firm’s premises.

There is £1.46 million available to creditors, mostly tied up in stock, but is only expected to realise about £313,000.

The company, which specialises in traditional presswork, welded fabrication and sheet metal manipulation, had suffered in the recession as a result of the depressed construction and civil engineering markets which led to a reduction in turnover.

View the original article here

Inflation Concerns Remain as Gold and Silver Climb Higher

 

On Thursday, gold and silver prices were essentially unchanged.  Despite positive economic data being released, gold prices settled at $1,654, while silver closed at $30.51.  Newly released inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the prices consumers paid in December were roughly the same as they paid in November.  However, investors are still showing a growing concern for inflation.

The monthly Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers survey shows a zero percent change on “All Items” on a seasonally adjusted basis, but a drop in energy commodities (-1.9 percent) helped to dampen the numbers.  The inflation picture is somewhat clearer when using annual comparisons between 2010 and 2011.  The CPI increased 3 percent in 2011, compared to only a 1.5 percent increase in 2010.  This doubling of the inflation rate was the largest December to December increase since 2007.  Prices consumers paid for food at home increased 6 percent in 2011, up from 1.7 percent in 2010, with dairy and related products being the steepest increase at 8.1 percent.

Investor Insight: Will China Unleash More Stimulus and Boost Gold Prices?

Like us on Facebook

Due to revisions in the Consumer Price Index over the years such as hedonic and substitution adjustments, the inflation rate is often understated.  John Williams from ShadowStats recently explained that if inflation was calculated the same way as it was right before 1990, the annual inflation rate in 2011 was about 6.3 percent.  Using inflation reporting methods from before 1980, the annual inflation rate was almost 11 percent in 2011, compared to 9 percent in 2010.

Yesterday, investors purchased $15 billion worth of 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities at a yield of -0.046 percent.  It is the first time in 15 years since TIPS were introduced that investors at auction purchased the securities at a negative yield.  “It’s a safe-haven play. It’s all about the return of capital rather than the return on capital,” said Richard Schlanger, a portfolio manager at Pioneer Investments USA.  The total accepted bids for the 10-year TIPS compared to the amount offered came in at a ratio of almost 3 to 1.  This represents the strongest demand since last March.

Don’t Miss: Greece’s Rental Market Reaches New Level of Desperation.

“The reason for TIPS buying as of late has been fear that the Fed’s policies will lead to inflation further down the road,” said fixed-income analyst Gennadiy Goldberg.  The principal or face value of TIPS fluctuate with changes in inflation, in an effort to protect investors from a loss of purchasing power.  However, TIPS are based on the current CPI, which as we discussed earlier, can grossly understate real inflation.  As a result, some turn to gold and silver for inflation protection, even central banks, as they became net purchasers of gold for the first time in 20 years in 2010.  Unlike current fiat currencies, both precious metals have survived thousands of years of global turmoil.  Due to monetary policies over the past decade, gold prices have climbed from $250 to $1,660 per ounce today.  Meanwhile, silver prices have surged from $4.50 to over $31.

Even though gold and silver have experienced a remarkable move, it comes at the cost of the U.S. dollar.  As nations continue to struggle with a global insolvency crisis, central banks continue to provide stimulus measures that devalue fiat currencies.  A growing consensus of economists predict that the Federal Reserve is likely to inject another $1 trillion worth of easing to stimulate the economy.  Such a move, will provide yet another blow to the U.S. dollar, and another catalyst for higher gold and silver prices.

If you would like to receive more professional analysis on equity miners and other precious metal investments, we invite you to try our premium service free for 14 days.

To contact the reporter on this story: Eric McWhinnie at staff.writers@wallstcheatsheet.com

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Damien Hoffman at editors@wallstcheatsheet.com

The article was first published by Wall St. Cheat Sheet and does not represent the views or opinions of International Business Times.

View the original article here

EUR/USD in summation

On the week, the USD and JPY made substantial losses against most majors amid positive data coming out of the US, suggesting recovery for the world’s biggest economy.  EUR/USD touched a two-week high before a report forecast to show sales of existing U.S. homes rose to the highest in 1&1/2 years.  In Asian trading the EUR/USD peaked at around 1.2983, its highest level since Jan 4.  In addition the euro has risen 2.3% since Jan 13.  Overall the currency market had a very quiet day during Asian session perhaps due to the winding down in readiness for the Lunar new year or that traders are waiting for news as Greece heads into a third day of talks with private creditors on a debt-swap plan.  In summation for the week, we have seen euro recover across the board on the back of short covering, technical retracement and stop losses.  That said market players are still quite comfortable with the thought that EUR/USD remains bearish as a trend due fundamental factors.  However in our opinion and with regards to risk/return ratio, the daily chart seems to indicate that the downward trend may resume on the break of 1.2930.

View the original article here

Europe exhales after another good week

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- Europe has taken a step back from the brink.

Three weeks into the year, borrowing rates for debt-saddled countries have fallen to more manageable levels. Auctions of government debt have gone better, a sign of increased investor confidence.

And while it may have been an embarrassment, especially to France, a sweeping downgrade of nine European countries last week by Standard & Poor's, the credit rating agency, has been met with a shrug in financial markets.

All this is in stark contrast to the final weeks of last year, when countries such as Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece watched helplessly as the costs of managing their debt spiraled ever higher, and governments fell in Athens and Rome.

High hurdles remain: Greece must still cut a deal with its private creditors, to say nothing of the long-term problems - massive debt, uncompetitive economies and the prospect of years of cutbacks in public spending.

But for the moment, the continent is exhaling.

Portuguese Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar, after his country successfully sold euro2.5 billion of its national debt on Thursday, ventured that it was "a sign that we may be coming to a turning point."

Among other good news this week in the European debt crisis:

- Despite having an AA+ credit rating now, France easily sold euro9.5 billion, or about $12.2 billion, in bonds at interest rates lower than at previous auctions when its rating was AAA. The sale eased fears that S&P's downgrade of France would hurt the finances of the continent's No. 2 economy. France sold four-year bonds at 1.89 percent, down from 2.32 percent in November, and 10-year, inflation-linked bonds at 1.07 percent, also down from 2.32 percent.

- Spain raised euro6.6 billion, far more than its initial target of euro3.5 billion to euro4.5 billion. It agreed to pay 5.4 percent on its bonds, down from 5.54 percent in the last such auction in December. Demand was twice what was being offered.

- Stock indexes in Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain - plus the Dow Jones industrial average in the United States - have climbed back close to their levels from last August, when the crisis spread to Italy and took a turn for the worse.

The European Central Bank, chief monetary authority for the 17 countries that use the euro currency, gets some of the credit for sending cash flowing to banks - and through them, it appears, to troubled countries.

In December, the ECB said it would lend banks unlimited amounts of money to stabilize them. It also said it would lower the interest rate on the loans to 1 percent, extend the maximum term from one year to three and accept collateral of lower quality. The banks responded by borrowing 489 billion in three-year loans at a low interest rate, currently 1 percent.

The banks appear to have used at least some of that money to buy the bonds governments have been selling almost daily. The extra demand at the bond auctions also helps bring down the interest rates on the bonds.

Stefan Schneider, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, says the ECB "is now the main source of financing" for the troubled countries' banks "and gives these banks the opportunity to invest in the government bonds of their own countries."

Another ECB all-you-can-eat credit offering is slated for Feb. 28.

The central bank has refused pleas to expand its limited program and buy government bonds itself on the open market. It says countries need to cut debt themselves and not expect a central bank bailout.

Members of the ECB governing council have cited law that prohibits the bank from financing governments. Some analysts say the massive bank loans appear to be doing exactly that, just indirectly.

Schneider, though, cautioned that there is no "magic bullet" to solve the crisis.

"I think we will not be able, even with the advantage of hindsight, to indicate the point in time when the crisis ended," he said.

On Friday, stocks in Europe mostly held their gains for the week, waiting for the outcome of Greece's negotiations with its creditors on a deal to cut the face value of up to euro200 billion in debt by 50 percent.

A deal in Athens would allow the country to receive a second bailout package from other European governments and the International Monetary Fund, and cut Greece's debt from an estimated 160 percent of its annual economic output to 120 percent by 2020.

That is still painfully high, but without the help, Greece will not be able to pay euro14.5 billion in debt due March 20. A Greek default would send borrowing costs higher across Europe and could trigger chaos in the global financial system.

Even with a deal, Greece could default in coming years. An IMF review in December conceded that 120 percent is at the upper end of what is sustainable, and only if Greece's economy starts growing again after five years of recession.

And Greece is just one potential problem. Many countries are either headed for recession or stuck in deep ones, which will make debt reduction even tougher.

While Portugal, Greece and Ireland could be bailed out by the other euro countries and the IMF, Italy is considered much too big to rescue for any substantial length of time.

The new prime minister, Mario Monti, has promised to shake up what he calls an over-regulated, underperforming economy, accelerate economic growth and reduce the country's debt burden, which is also 120 percent of its annual economic output. But he faces tough political opposition.

Spain has taken some steps to loosen regulations on hiring and firing but has no clear growth model after the collapse of its real estate bubble. Unemployment is 22.9 percent, and for people under 25, it's a staggering 49.6 percent.

Bank stocks got a big bounce Thursday after stronger-than-expected bank earnings in the United States and word that Germany's Commerzbank could meet new requirements to boost its capital buffers without needing government help.

This week's stock rally across Europe left Germany's DAX 30 9.5 percent higher over the past month, France's CAC up 8.7 percent and the FTSE 100 in London up 5.9 percent.

Investors are all too aware that previous respites from market turmoil have turned out to be temporary.

For now, investors can increase their holdings of risky assets, says Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank. But he had an ominous warning this week in a note to investors.

"The ECB can only buy time," he said. "With many problems still unresolved in Spain and Italy, the sovereign debt crisis is likely to continue, and the economic recovery following the recession is likely to be lackluster."

---

Associated Press writer Barry Hatton in Lisbon, Portugal, contributed to this report.

View the original article here

ROUBINI AND BREMMER: The Fate Of Global Growth Depends On US-China Relations

Economists Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer appeared on Bloomberg TV today to discuss all the major issues in the global economy right now.

The biggest focus? China.

While they butted heads about the immediacy of the threat, both pointed out that political tensions between the U.S. and China are going to significantly influence the global economy.

A few more notable tidbits via Bloomberg TV. Watch the whole video below:

Roubini on Greece:

"Even if they reach an agreement there are going to be so many holdouts that then they'll have a problem. They'll either pay the holdouts and that becomes expensive, or if they don't pay them you'll have a series of defaults, because they're going to stop paying them. Or the way to avoid the holdouts from being holdouts is then to change domestic legislation, to cram down the terms of the majority on the holdouts. But if that happens then the CDS will trigger and that becomes a credit event. So either way you're going to get a credit event."

"The credit event can be two forms, either a form of default…another one is if there are holdouts and you don't pay them and technically that's a default on the bonds on which you don't pay so there's a series of defaults on which you don't pay. Or three, if you change the terms of the bonds through legislation then that's considered a credit event by ISDA by the event triggering the CDS. And one way or another you get a credit event. One extreme is a default, another one is CDS triggering."

Roubini on the chances of recession in the U.S.:

"I would say latest numbers out of the US have been better for the fourth quarter. I even expect a slowdown so I think the probability of a recession in the United States is lower than 60 percent right now….A lot depends on the eurozone, if the eurozone situation becomes disorderly."

Bremmer on geopolitics:

"The economics are driving the geopolitics and that's after decades when security issues drove the geopolitics, the U.S. talking about geopolitics.  U.S. talking about economic statecraft right now about, they've done this not in a proactive way, they've done this because American allies in Asia have been begging for the US to show commitment, whether it's Singapore or Vietnam, whether it's Japan or all the rest."

Bremmer on China's Obama concern:

"The Chinese are very concerned about what the Obama administration defense policy will be in the region, and saying that the Chinese are opaque. This will lead to more confrontation over the South China Sea, over the East China Sea, because the Chinese clearly want to ensure that they're not on the back foot in a part of the world that's utterly critical for their own security sensibilities."

Roubini, Bremmer on China:

Roubini: "I do expect there's going to be a significant slowdown of growth in China this year.  We're going to see it already in the Q1 numbers…the Chinese will react by reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates to try and jumpstart the economy…I think it's going to happen in the first half of the year."

Bremmer: "When it comes to the United States and China let's be clear. Structurally these countries are moving towards more conflict. These are the world's two largest economies and that clearly is problematic in terms of economics volatility over the longer term. But as of this year the American economy is dominating, not foreign policy. And there can be a little bit of noise on Iran, a little bit of noise on China. When it comes to currency, the Chinese have been moving at their pace, very slowly, very incrementally, and American politicians have to show they don't like it. But to be clear, American multinational corporations are perfectly happy with it, they manufacture in China. They are on the other side of it. It's American Labor that has the problem with it. And they don't have a lot of influence with the Republicans right now."

Roubini on whether the slowdown in Europe and the United States will spread:

"In the case of the eurozone it's clearly the periphery is not just in a recession but a deepening recession. So the eurozone is in a recession, the UK looks like it's going towards a recession. The data from the United States has been somehow more mixed, positive lately but in my view the process of deleveraging the public and private sector is going to continue that implies slow domestic growth demand and the exports of the United States are not going to improve."

Bremmer on Iran oil sanctions:

"The main implication behind the oil sanctions against Iran is that China will get cheaper oil from Iran, let's be clear about that. But leaving that aside, the Obama administration has actually recently said that purpose of those sanctions is regime change in Iran and they're doing that for domestic reasons because the Republicans have outflanked them a little bit. They said well we might have to engage in military actions. Obama doesn't want to look soft but wants to change his policy. So here's a way of saying same policy, tougher line. Great for domestic policy, not so great for dealing with Iran."

View the original article here

Europeans welcome Chinese investors

Global ExchangePosted on Friday, January 20, 2012 1:21PM EST

16 comments

As cash-strapped European governments put assets up for sale, Chinese companies and funds are seen as increasingly welcome investors, displaying a growing firepower that is helping to reshape the global economy.

Some of the more surprising bidders emerging for European assets are China’s power companies, often large conglomerates expanding into western markets for the first time.

As the euro zone crisis plays out, Chinese groups have been eager to examine the hard assets being sold, even though the bloc’s debt has appeared to be a tougher sale to Beijing.

More Chinese deals are expected this year as cash-strapped governments and companies put infrastructure on the auction block, particularly in the utilities sector.

China’s $410-billion sovereign wealth fund has also shown an interest in investing in infrastructure in developed countries.

The latest Chinese purchase - an investment by China’s sovereign wealth fund in the UK’s Thames Water - highlights Chinese investors’ preference for low-risk physical assets that carry steady returns.

Among the European stakes expected to come up for sale from sovereign nations are electricity transmission assets in Portugal and Ireland. These have attracted Chinese interest, say bankers.

While Chinese power companies are relatively new to European markets, their spending power and close ties to Chinese financial institutions make them attractive partners for debt-strapped European governments.

China’s Three Gorges, the operator of the hydroelectric dam on the Yangtze, won a hotly contested bidding process for a stake in EDP, Portugal’s dominant power company. For Three Gorges, it marked the company’s first major overseas acquisition, and for Portugal it marked a welcome opportunity to roll out the red carpet for other potential investors.

China’s State Grid, the country’s largest electricity distribution network and one of the largest companies in the world by asset size, is in the final bidding round for Portugal’s REN, which operates power transmission and natural gas distribution networks. After investing in transmission assets in the Philippines and Brazil, State Grid has said it plans to expand overseas investment during the next four years.

“For all of the Chinese power companies one of their strategic aims is to grow their global footprint. So whenever a new opportunity comes up they will take a look,” said Daniel Qiu, managing director in the energy group for Credit Suisse, which advised Three Gorges on its purchase of the EDP stake.

Chinese power companies have been reticent to explain their overseas strategies but people close to the companies say increasing their revenues and expanding into new markets are considerations.

Euro zone assets expected to go on sale include a minority stake in Ireland’s Electricity Supply Board. The Greek government has pledged sell €50-billion worth of its assets, which include stakes in its gas network. Italy has also outlined a privatization programme. State-owned properties and utilities belonging to local authorities, excluding water companies, are expected to come up for sale.

“The eurozone sovereign debt crisis is leading to a significant change in investment strategy by those nations running a budget surplus,” said Pip McCrostie, global head of transactions at Ernst & Young. “It’s unlikely that Thames Water will be the only deal of its kind as cash-rich economies such as China refocus their investment strategy from government debt and market debt securities to hard assets.”

The UK is seen by some M&A specialists as one of the most open markets to the Chinese. “The price is right and sterling is cheap,” said one dealmaker. “UK is uniquely open to Chinese buyers - most mature markets have foreign investment regulations.”

European companies selling assets are also expected to get a close look from Chinese investors, including Veolia, the water company, which is in the process of an €5-billion disposal, which includes its UK water business.

More Global Exchange

View the original article here

World & UK Sport: Ameen threatens to sue Khan

Mustafa Ameen has vowed to sue former WBA and IBF light-welterweight world champion Amir Khan unless he apologises for comments relating to his role in the Englishman's defeat to Lamont Peterson.

Since the December 10 split-decision loss, Khan has raised a number of grievances, the most recent of which was asking what Ameen was doing at ringside interacting with WBA supervisor Michael Welsh. It has since come to light that Ameen is loosely affiliated to the IBF (International Boxing Federation) but had no official business on the night.

Ameen, who denies any wrongdoing, told Sky Sports News: "Amir Khan is going to have to apologise because I am in the process...I will litigate this."

He added: "I am already in discussions with some of the most successful legal firms in Britain regarding the slander, the libellous statements that have been made against me by Amir Khan and other individuals in the press and I intend to fully seek a remedy in a court of law.

"I will give Mr Khan an opportunity prior to me reaching the point of no return of filing a lawsuit, he has an opportunity (to apologise).

"I understand maybe in the heat of the moment in his disappointment there were things that he tweeted.

"But if you look back at all of the things that have changed about the 'mystery man' and 'the man in the hat', then it comes out that I'm a charitable guy that works with distressed fighters on behalf of the IBF. I receive no remuneration. I actually spend my own money. I don't even ask them for reimbursement for expenses. I fly, I talk with them, there are no financial ties."

Ameen continued: "My life is clean. For Mr Khan to accuse me of the things that he has accused me of, and to have all of the sheep - the British sheep, the fans, the media, his team - for them to add on, they all piled on on Mustafa Ameen, but I'm still standing, I'm going to fight back. And Mr Khan needs to apologise, if not we will litigate this in court.

"I'm going to sue, yes. And he's not alone. As a matter of fact Mr Freddie Roach (Khan's trainer) has made some very libellous, slanderous statements that are obvious untruths.

"Mr Roach needs to apologise and if Mr Roach wants to issue an apology to me I will accept his apology - but it needs to be very, very soon because I'm in the process of sorting out which legal team I want to represent me. I'll guarantee you I will have the best legal team."

View the original article here

How to Get Your Mindset On the Right Track When Trading Forex?

It is important for Forex traders to get their mindsets on the right track when they start trading Forex. Traders should particularly pay attention to their mindsets and learn to control their emotions as they trade in the Forex market. The best Forex trading system will be nothing without the proper Forex trading psychology. Many traders neglect the fact and then wonder why they can pick the market direction accurately most of the time. However, it still seems that they lose money over the long-run Forex trading, since they don’t work on the correct trading psychology.

The most effective way to maintain the proper Forex trading psychology is to simplify your overall Forex trading. You can particularly simplify your Forex trading system or the amount of time you spend on your Forex charts. If you make everything as simple as possible, you can avoid trading pitfalls which may affect you to develop and maintain the proper trading mindset.

The simple Forex trading virtually has a positive effect on your overall trading psychology. If you are employing a complicated Forex trading strategy which is entirely based on Forex trading software, you should start again from the basics of technical chart analysis and learn to read price movement of the Forex market.

View the original article here

Learn Forex-How Can Traders Improve Their Forex Trading?

Many Forex traders like to over-trade in the Forex market. Whether they are aware of it or not, the specific Forex trading strategy they employ should allow them to easily spot high-probability trading signals. If you find yourself keep searching for trade setups each week, you need to re-assess the trading strategy you employ and take some time off from the Forex market.

When you over-trade in the Forex market, you essentially trade with money you can’t afford to lose, since Forex traders who over-trade virtually stop re-funding their trading accounts after losing all their money. Therefore, don’t fund your Forex trading account with money that could be better used for other things in your life.

Many Forex traders think it is unnecessary for them to obtain a proper Forex education. Alternately, they choose to learn themselves. Indeed, learning from a structured Forex educational system is the most viable way to become a successful Forex trader. This can help you decrease your learning curve and eliminate most trial and error.

Some Forex traders might spend too much time analyzing the lower time-frame charts. However, why not try to spend most of your time analyzing the daily chart? The daily chart filters out all the randomness of the lower time frames, which makes any signal on the daily chart much more reliable than the same signal on lower time frames. Many traders usually think that trading off the lower time frame charts can help them increase the amount of money or find more opportunities. However, the lower in time frame you go, the lower in probability the signal becomes. Therefore, it is a viable way for Forex traders to spend more time analyzing and trading the daily charts.

View the original article here

Forex Analysis-Analysis and Suggestions on EUR/USD on 19th Jan. 2012

Yesterday, on the daily Forex chart, we can see that the Euro ended with a candlestick with little or no tail. Despite that the day before yesterday, the euro ended with a candle showing long tail, it still moved up high. After all, nobody is able to predict the high risky Forex market, is it? All what I do every day is just provide you suggestions for your reference. Now, as regularly, where the euro is going today on 19th Jan. 2012?

Technical Forex Analysis

On the 4-hour Forex daily chart, yesterday the euro was positive, almost trending all the way up. However, it did not bring Forex traders many surprises-that is to say, it did not move as what regularly did, which is a little bit hard for Forex traders to handle. At present, the euro is supposed not to reach any higher in the future.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The markets are now focused on the Greek government’s negotiations with international creditors over the writing down of its debts. Without an agreement, Athens is likely to default on a bond repayment in March and could then trigger a forfeit of the €130bn bail-out agreed by leaders last year. Eyes are also focused on French and Spanish sovereign bond auctions later today.

As Raghee Horner, chief currency analyst for Interbank FX explains: “The daily EUR/USD has rallied to the swing short zone that is between the 20 period SMA close (aggressive) and the 34 period EMA low all while traders ponder what the odds are that the IMF will get an additional $500 billion to begin lending out (the U.S. has opted out) and whether the bulls have enough momentum behind the stream of positive headlines to make a run at 1.3000.”

Trading Suggestion

Downside risk still remains, the support line I analyze is 1.2806 and the resistance line is 1.2953.
I suggest that Forex traders should observe the 30-minute Forex chart for every tiny movement. Suggestion 1: if the euro drops to the line 1.2832, then Forex traders can consider going long. Suggestion 2: if the euro drops to 1.2806. Go short.
Suggestion 3: if the euro drops and breaks out the line 1.2806, but is not able to reach as high as this, Forex traders can consider going short.
Suggestion 4: if the euro reaches as high as 1.2953, go short.

View the original article here

Best Forex Strategy-How Can Forex Traders Trade the Forex Market Better?

Last time I mentioned how Forex traders can trade both the trend and range Forex market using just one single Forex strategy. Normally there are some things on which Forex traders have to fix a watchful eye.

1.In fast moving market situations (when the signal confirm after one or two long candles) wait till the price bounce back to correctional level of % 23 Fibo and then enter the trade.

2. Most reliable signal confirms when the RSI running above / below 50 line when you go for a Long / Short.

3. A break of RSI Trend Line confirms when the second candle opens on the suggested direction.

4.Don’t ever take the trade unless the second bar opens Above / Below MACD zero line for a Long / Short trade while the MACD signal line will just give you an in advance alert to be ready for the trade.

5. Once again, the crossover of MACD Value and the Signal Line will warn of a potential trade but don’t ever take it unless you have your own reasonable reasons to do that.

6. Don’t ever take second trade of LONG / SHORT in line with the first trade order type unless a FRESH signal of aforementioned conditions confirm to trade.

8. Don’t ever risk more than 5% of your account balance unless you have your reasonable money management rules that suite you.

9. Avoid the side markets by observing a narrowed Bollinger Bands or flat RSI line.

10. Place the Stop Loss 10 pips above / below of bearish / bullish Parabolic SAR first appeared dot or 10 pips Above / Below the current Resistance (R2) / (S2) Support levels.

11. Most of the false signals come when you trade against the major trend of the market. To know how to define the major trend use bigger time frame like daily or even weekly chart and apply the same setup on that chart to know what is probably the right direction of the market. Sometimes when the price touch the 55 EMA line react as a support or resistance level and at the same time you may have a trading signal against this fact. In this case you are probably against the major trend.

View the original article here

Learn Forex-Start Working on Your Forex Trading Psychology

Forex traders should particularly understand that Forex trading psychology plays an important role in their Forex trading. They often forget how the Forex trading psychology can affect their performance and how integral it is to their overall Forex trading strategy. If traders really want to succeed in the Forex markets, they need to make sure that their mind is in the right place. Here are some practical ways that traders can start from the right mindset.

Many people trade Forex from the wrong mindset, since they often start with the wrong expectations and are unrealistic about their trading goals. Most traders start trading with an urgency to make money in the Forex market. When they start trading from this mindset, they basically tend to be emotional traders. This means they will ultimately lose money in the end.

Therefore, once you start trading with real money, make sure you are not trading to get rich quickly. Also, if you are a Forex beginner, it is a great way to take advantage of good free Forex trading material, such as Forex trading website and others. The one thing to clearly separate the winning traders from the losers is a difference in Forex trading psychology. Thus, make sure your mind is in the right place when trading Forex.

View the original article here

Best Forex Strategy-How to Trade both Trend and Range Forex Market

The fact is, it is not honestly easy to make money at the end of a year through using this trading set up or the other ones, because as I said already, it is impossible for a trader to predict every next action of the market. The reasons behind this saying, would be “no one had 100 % wining trades in such a market” and the other reason that I personally refer to when I think I’m OK enough in trading is “when I see the huge currency market screen on my laptop, I really see nothing while the real huge market is hidden behind the screen and you don’t actually know what’s going to happen next with unexpected Iraqi, Iranian, Chinese or Mexican gulf storms cases next”. So all I am trying to emphasize is not forget to that a real trader must know as much as he/she can from all market movers first and always has an eye on possibilities that could easily turn to a nightmare. Those possibilities often come up with a 300 pips bar or a scary gap just against your technically approved trade.

Well, whether you have a magic expert indicator or not, with no doubt you must combine at least two different ways or indicators to produce a signal which is reliable for both trendy and range market situations. Briefly I show you how and which ones I prefer to use.

How to Draw the RSI trend line?

You simply have to connect at least two turn points of RSI value line which can interpret into drawing a line which connect the last value line top (the last value line Top is the one that formed much closer to your current signal than the others and match better to correction on the price chart) to next line top with is normally lower than the first top in a short trade and higher than the first top in a Long trade.

The Top of RSI value line is the hump that formed because of a correction (Fibo ratios for correctional pullbacks), so try to filter the useless RSI Tops with the real chart formation as you may get it wrong when a hump has formed on the RSI while there is no correction on the price chart.

Also, if you realized that you actually took the wrong Top for the trade and you already entered the market, please and for god sake, exit the trade and open another one on the true direction of the market.

There is something you need to pay attention, too. Therefore, stay with me!

View the original article here

Forex Analysis-Analysis and Trading Suggestions of EUR/USD

Yesterday, on the daily Forex chart, we can see that the Euro ended with a candlestick with a long tail, showing that there would strong resistance line above. Actually after the euro met resistance at the line 1.2686, it retraced slightly. However afterwards it soon moved back up again and broke out the resistance with a long white body. Although it then turned afterwards, it did not break out the line 1.2697. Where the euro is going today on 18th Jan. 2012?

Technical Forex Analysis

On the 4-hour Forex daily chart, yesterday the euro trended sideways just below the line 1.2686 and after that it continued going upwards, breaking resistance lines again and again until it met resistance line at 1.2806. The euro dropped directly to the line 1.2710 and then rebounded strongly. For now the euro is still trending sideways.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The euro is trading in a 1.2741-87 range so far, gaining ground for the third session in a row.
Stronger-than-expected GDP Chinese figures boosted sentiment on Monday, pushing riskier assets prices to higher levels. The upside was propped by positive German data out of the ZEW index, successful EFSF bond auction and a jump in the Empire State MI in the US.
The PSI talks are to resume today and would be one of the risk-events driving the markets in the upcoming weeks.

The cross is up 0.09% at 1.2757 as of writing, with resistance at 1.2810 (hourly high Jan.17) ahead of 1.2879 (high Jan.13) then 1.2898 (low Jan.4) and 1.2946 (high Jan.5).
On the downside, a breach of 1.2711 (hourly low Jan.17) would expose 1.2624 (low Jan.13) then 1.2592 (Lower Bollinger) and 1.2588 (monthly low Aug.14).

Trading Suggestion

Downside risk still remains, the support line I analyze is 1.2686 and the resistance line is 1.2777.
I suggest that Forex traders should observe the 30-minute Forex chart for every tiny movement. Suggestion 1: if the euro reaches the line 1.2765, then Forex traders can consider going short. Suggestion 2: if the euro reaches as high as 1.2777. Go short.
Suggestion 3: if the euro drops and breaks out the line 1.2686, Forex traders can consider going long; while they had better not take any action when the euro breaks out the same line for the second time.

View the original article here

Best Forex Strategy-How to Be Successful Part-Time Forex Traders

Actually there are very few Forex traders available all the time in the Forex market. As part time Forex traders, it is reasonable that they would worry about missing some tiny movements of the Forex market leading to unnecessary losses. Then what the best Forex strategies that can help part time traders to be successful?

Assuming you cannot even trade for an entire hour or for regular increments during the day, you can still trade the Forex market. Since you cannot watch the market during the day, the following strategies may be implemented so you can be a successful part-time Forex trader:

Best Forex Strategy No.1: Take fewer positions and hold for days.

After studying the market and narrowing down particular chosen currency pairs, you can take only a few positions and hold these positions for a longer period of time. It is critical that you understand the drivers of your currency pairs and have taken the time to really understand your market. Another wise strategy is to put in stop-loss orders with all your trades to minimize any losses if the market moves against you.

Best Forex Strategy No.2: Look at long-term trends.

Instead of looking at hourly or even four-hour charts, you may want to look at the trends for a day or week. This will allow you to trade while looking at your computer only once a day.

Best Forex Strategy No.3: Set up trading orders.

Setting limit, stop-loss or other entry/exit orders can ensure you do not miss opportunities to enter or exit positions. Most trading platforms allow you to set up these orders with no additional fees.

Best Forex Strategy No.4: Use technology!

Set up auto alerts to your mobile phone or email to keep you informed while you are not actively trading.

View the original article here